Protected: An interview with AH
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The Global Inventory Overhang / Recession Risk
The prospects for the world at the beginning of this year were once again over-hyped and overall aggregate demand trends have under delivered. For example, it was forecast that there would be a revival in US, Japanese and even European…
The End of Abenomics?
Abe’s reign has failed to produce either the real economic, nominal or fiscal results that had been envisaged. The weak Yen has collapsed world trade prices, hasn’t recovered domestic capital spending, is unlikely to generate more nominal GDP inflation and…
Europe after Paris
After Friday 13th tragic events, France and Europe have a number of responses to prioritise, such as; tighter defence, stronger security and a greater need for an economic recovery. The importance and effects of these will differ between the various…
China’s excess money
China’s post 2002 growth, and particularly that which occurred from 2009 onwards, involved the creation of a massively outsized financial system. This caused a record breaking debt to GDP ratio which may turn into a compound-interest-driven Debt Trap similar to…
Germany – a slowdown
For the last five years it has been the auto sector that was responsible for almost all of the growth in German IP. Naturally, the Asia/EM slowdown had already started to impact German car exporters quite severely and there were…
The Root of Asia’s Problems
It’s difficult even within the context of a ’closed economy’ to know just how much credit there is within the wider system and the situation is even harder to quantify when one comes to international credit flows. The official balance…
Can France Sustain its Recent Spending Growth
The weak euro has increased the cost of non-oil imports to the economy – hence deflation has eased but the higher import prices represent a ‘tax’ on consumers. However, the decline in the oil price had more impact on household…
Weak World Trade and a Fiscal Easing in 2016
The Dutch group CPB has reported that total world trade volumes are flat in year on year terms and down 1.6% YTD, as well as Asian import volumes being down 8% YTD and export volumes by a massive 9% YTD….